Kremlin officials think Ukraine’s Kursk incursion could continue for months — and they want to convince Russians this is the ‘new normal’

Two weeks into the Ukrainian army’s foray into the Kursk region, officials in Moscow are over the initial shock and are now trying to spin the ongoing fighting on Russian territory as yet another “new normal,” sources close to the Putin administration and the government told Meduza. All of the officials Meduza spoke to believed the fighting in the Kursk region could continue for several months, however, the authorities are loath to cancel the upcoming gubernatorial elections. Sources also said that Kremlin propagandists are priming public opinion to normalize sending conscripts into embattled border areas, all while officials weigh the pros and cons of another round of mobilization. 

When the Ukrainian Armed Forces began an incursion into Russia’s Kursk region on August 6, Russian “elites” were “shocked,” two sources close to the Putin administration and another source close to top government officials told Meduza. Two weeks on, however, “the shock has worn off” and they’ve begun to adapt. 

“At first it wasn’t clear what forces [had crossed the border and] for how long. Now there’s an understanding [and] this is always easier. [Ukrainian forces] are far from the regional centers, but [their] very entry into Russian territory and seizing control of villages is a new and very unpleasant event,” explained a source close to the Kremlin.

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One source close to the Putin administration pointed to a recent Kremlin-commissioned poll, which showed that against the backdrop of the incursion, the share of Russians who believe an “anxious mood” is predominant in their social circles shot up six points to 45 percent. Officials in the Putin administration considered this figure quite high and hope it will come down quickly.

“During a shock — and this was certainly a shock — there are always leaps [in the polls]. Then people get used to it and everything settles down. What happened during the Prigozhin rebellion, the mobilization, and the start of the war?” one source said cynically. Although he added that “if the war stopped, everyone would feel better.”

The ‘new’ new normal

In order for things to “settle down” more quickly, the Kremlin is enlisting its propagandists to try and help Russians adapt to this “new reality.” They’re also recycling the term “new normal,” which Kremlin propagandists used during the global pandemic and at the very start of the full-scale war. “This [terminology] is necessary so that people think of what’s happening not as a deviation but as a new norm, albeit a temporary one. This should be calming,” explained a spin doctor who works with the Putin administration’s domestic policy bloc. 

As conceived by the Kremlin, the key elements of this “new reality” are as follows:

• The enemy really did penetrate Russian territory;
• Inevitable defeat awaits them;
• But returning territory takes time, and Russians will need to wait. 

During this time, residents are urged to “channel the negativity and shock in a positive direction” — namely, to help collect aid for the Kursk region. The Putin administration has already “recommended” that regional governments take up collections, as well. 

“It’s not, you need to collect this much money or send this many groceries. [Just] organize a collection and suggest [people] participate. In [some regions] they suggested transferring one day’s earnings — this is voluntary-compulsory. It’s understood that if the leadership says so, public sector employees will transfer [money]. But [in my region] everything is purely voluntary,” a high-ranking regional official told Meduza on condition of anonymity. According to him and two officials from other regions, some state corporations have also organized similar collection drives. 

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As for the upcoming gubernatorial elections in the Kursk region (where Alexey Smirnov is currently acting governor), early voting is set to begin on August 28 and the main voting day will take place in early September. Earlier, Verstka reported that the authorities had debated canceling the vote and replacing Smirnov with another hand-picked candidate. However, this wasn’t corroborated by Meduza’s sources close to the Putin administration. 

“You never know what rumors are spreading [in the region]. Canceling would increase panic: it [would] mean the entire region is under threat,” said one source close to the Kremlin. In his words, refraining from electing a new governor could give locals the impression that “the region has already been surrendered.” This same source also insisted there are “no threats to voting,” claiming, “In Donbas, elections and referendums took place in conditions of war and nothing [happened].” 

That said, as Verstka also reported, the municipal elections in the region could actually be canceled. “This is just a targeted cancellation, it’s not scary,” Meduza’s source claimed. 

‘Fairly optimistic’

All of the officials Meduza spoke to believe the fighting in the Kursk region could continue for several months. One source close to the government even deemed this assessment “fairly optimistic.” 

Earlier, Chechen special forces commander Apti Alaudinov claimed that not just the battle in the Kursk region but also the war itself would “end” in two or three months. Since the start of the incursion, Alaudinov has become the government’s unexpected spokesman for the Kursk region. Two sources close to the Kremlin attributed this to the fact that the FSB is overseeing the situation and “the intelligence services don’t like to talk or go out in public,” while Alaudinov “wanted to do it himself; they aren’t stopping him.” “There needs to be some kind official representative,” one source said. 

A Meduza source close to the Russian government and another source close to the Putin administration claimed that immediately after the start of the Ukrainian offensive, Kremlin officials debated declaring another round of mobilization. This was previously reported by Bloomberg, whose sources said that due to a shortage of reserves, Russia could conduct another mobilization before the end of 2024. 

However, a source close to the government told Meduza that both the cabinet of ministers and businessmen with state ties are strongly opposed to another mobilization drive. “This will knock the last of the workforce out of the economy. There’s no one left to work. And [if] some are taken away, others will sneak off,” he explained. 

At the same time, the source stressed that he didn’t know to what extent the country’s top leadership listens to such arguments. In his view, it’s more likely that Russia will involve massive numbers of conscripts in the fighting in the Kursk region. The two sources close to the Putin administration claimed that state media is already priming public opinion on this issue. (Alaudinov, for example, has already addressed it.) “This is also part of the new norm. Since the enemy came to us, conscripts [must] take part in repelling [them],” one source said. 

The “elites” are also waiting for those who failed to prevent the Ukrainian incursion to lose their jobs. “Immediately afterwards, they started to discuss [General Staff Chief Valery] Gerasimov’s resignation. Now, there are no such rumors,” one source said. “Things aren’t easy in the Kursk region, but the offensive in Donbas is ongoing. Gerasimov has ill-wishers, but he also has the offensive that he can present to the president as an achievement. But since there’s a crisis situation, [since there are] mistakes, then someone to blame will definitely appear.”

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