With Vuhledar lost and another Ukrainian stronghold in danger, Russia could take southern Donbas by year’s end

Like our earlier reports on the combat situation in Ukraine, this article takes stock of the recent developments on the battlefield based on open-source information. Meduza has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from the very start, and our detailed military analyses are part of our commitment to objective reporting on a war we firmly oppose.

Our map is based exclusively on open-source photos and videos, most of them posted by eyewitnesses on social media. We collect available evidence and determine its geolocation markers, adding only the photos and videos that clear this process. Meduza doesn’t try to track the conflict in real time; the data reflected on the map are typically at least 48 hours old.

Key updates as of October 9, 2024

After taking Vuhledar, Russian forces ran into strong Ukrainian defenses in the wooded areas north of the city. But to the west, the road leading to another Ukrainian “fortress,” Velyka Novosilka, appears much more vulnerable. This weak spot isn’t directly related to the fall of Vuhledar, as the units here weren’t involved in the city’s defense; Russian troops attacked and achieved a localized breakthrough on October 8, capturing the village of Zolota Nyva, 15 kilometers (about nine miles) west. Ukrainian forces also face difficulties north of Vuhledar, where the Russian army is advancing toward Kurakhove from the north and east. If the Russian army maintains its current trajectory, Ukraine could lose all of southern Donbas by the end of the year.

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Ukraine

Vuhledar

The problem for the Ukrainian forces on the Vuhledar front is that the group that had been defending the city is retreating north, while Russian troops seem to have shifted their focus westward. The Ukrainian Armed Forces’ (AFU) 58th Motorized Brigade is defending that area, but over the past month, Russian forces broke through to Vuhledar from the west (sealing the fate of the “fortress town”), took the village of Prechystivka, and have now taken the neighboring village of Zolota Nyva.

The 72nd Mechanized Brigade, which directly defended Vuhledar, is now trying to establish defenses northwest of the city to prevent Russian forces from breaking through in the direction of Bohoiavlenka and advancing toward Kurakhove. Russian forces also have an opportunity to advance on weak Ukrainian defenses along the road to Velyka Novosilka, a Ukrainian stronghold on the border of the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.

Meanwhile, Russian troops are continuing their attacks north of Vuhledar, moving from the direction of Novomykhailivka (which they captured this summer) and advancing along both banks of the Sukhi Yaly River, toward the villages of Katerynivka and Antonivka. In the long run, this offensive could position Russian forces behind the 72nd Brigade’s lines north of Bohoiavlenka.

Given that Russian forces are also advancing toward Kurakhove, deep behind the Ukrainian grouping near Vuhledar, the situation for Ukrainian troops in southern Donbas remains critical after the town’s fall.

Pokrovsk and Kurakhove

Russian forces have reached the eastern edge of the Kurakhove Reservoir near the village of Ostrivske. They’re also advancing toward the reservoir from the north, having captured part of Tsukuryne and the nearby mines. There’s no immediate threat to Kurakhove itself, as the city is located on the southern bank.

It’s still unclear what happened to the Ukrainian forces that were defending the large salient between Hirnyk and Donetsk, with a key position on the heights near Nevelske. This group had been blocking the Russian army from using the convenient Donetsk–Pokrovsk road as a supply route. If Ukrainian forces still hold positions east of Hirnyk (which is now under Russian assault), they risk encirclement. However, it’s more likely that Ukrainian troops have already withdrawn from the salient, though there’s no visual confirmation of this yet.

Behind the Ukrainian forces defending Hirnyk and Tsukuryne, Russian troops are surrounding the key city of Selydove. It’s already been encircled from both the north and the south, though Ukrainian forces have so far repelled attacks from the east. If Selydove falls, it could lead to a collapse in Ukrainian defenses along the Pokrovsk-Kurakhove front, splitting them into two disconnected groups — one defending Pokrovsk and the other Kurakhove.

Meanwhile, Russian forces have resumed their offensive directly on Pokrovsk, north of Selydove. Their advance units are now on the outskirts of Myrnohrad, just seven kilometers (about four miles) from Pokrovsk. However, there are no indications yet that Russian forces intend to storm these cities. The main grouping is still operating south of Selydove.

Kupyansk

Russian forces have reached the outskirts of Kruhliakivka and Kolisnykivka, villages located along the Oskil River. Reaching the Oskil has been the main objective of the Russian offensive in the Kupyansk area, which has been ongoing for more than a year. If Russian troops make it to the river, this will complicate the defense of the eastern part of Kupyansk (Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi). The Russian Aerospace Forces are constantly bombing the river crossings in Kupyansk, and if the road to the south is cut off, it could make it harder for Ukrainian forces to resupply.

Once they reach the river, Russian forces will likely attempt to surround Kupyansk from three sides — north, east, and south. Without forcing the Ukrainian troops to retreat across the river and unblocking the main roads, Russian troops won’t be able to advance south along the Oskil toward Borova, and further on to Lyman. The Russian grouping moving toward the Oskil from the east is already struggling due to a lack of usable supply routes.

Russia

Kursk region

In the Kursk region, both armies are continuing their offensives. Russian forces are attempting to cut off the Ukrainian group near Sudzha and further north by launching strikes along the border, while Ukrainian troops are pushing west, trying to break through to the district center of Glushkovo and halt the Russian advance.

Both sides have seen limited tactical gains. Ukrainian forces bypassed the Russian stronghold in the village of Veseloye but couldn’t capture it. Having committed significant troops to defending Veseloye, Russian forces managed to take part of the village of Lyubimovka, which protects Sudzha from the west, but haven’t been able to advance further. Southeast of Sudzha, Russian troops attempted to storm the village of Plekhovo after taking neighboring Borki, but suffered heavy equipment losses.

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Vuhledar’s importance

The fall of Vuhledar: How Ukraine lost the ‘fortress town’ and what its capture could mean for the war’s future

3 months ago

Vuhledar’s importance

The fall of Vuhledar: How Ukraine lost the ‘fortress town’ and what its capture could mean for the war’s future

3 months ago