Still advancing in Donbas, Russian forces intensify efforts to drive Ukrainian troops out of the Kursk region

Like our earlier reports on the combat situation in Ukraine, this article takes stock of the recent developments on the battlefield based on open-source information. Meduza has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from the very start, and our detailed military analyses are part of our commitment to objective reporting on a war we firmly oppose.

Our map is based exclusively on open-source photos and videos, most of them posted by eyewitnesses on social media. We collect available evidence and determine its geolocation markers, adding only the photos and videos that clear this process. Meduza doesn’t try to track the conflict in real time; the data reflected on the map are typically at least 48 hours old.

Key updates as of October 15, 2024

The Russian army initially failed to break through the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ (AFU) defenses in the Kursk region. However, Russian paratroopers and marines managed to reach the villages of Zelenyi Shlyakh and Novoivanovka — key defensive positions near Sudzha — on their second attempt. If they succeed in capturing these villages and continue to advance toward Malaya Loknya, they could cut off the entire northwestern section of the AFU’s foothold in the region. For now, however, Novoivanovka remains in Ukrainian hands, and there’s no indication that the Ukrainian command is planning to withdraw its forces away from the threat of encirclement.

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Russia

Kursk region

The AFU have shifted to defensive operations along the entire front line in the Kursk region. Even near Glushkovo, where Ukrainian forces launched an offensive just a week ago to divert Russian reserves, Russian forces are now advancing. Russian troops have retaken the hamlets of Lyubimovka and Pokrovsky, and further south, pushed the AFU back across the Snagost River. The Russian army also launched an attack from the direction of Korenevo toward Novoivanovka, reaching the village’s outskirts, where Ukrainian reserves managed to halt their advance.

Ukrainian troops near the villages of Olgovka and Pogrebki now face the threat of encirclement. Originally tasked with advancing toward the Lgov–Rylsk road deeper in the Kursk region, they’ve long since switched to defense. Despite the mounting risks, they’ve yet to really retreat toward Sudzha, even though advancing Russian forces have cut off their main supply route, the Korenevo–Sudzha road.

Russian troops are also pushing toward Sudzha from the southeast, with fighting already reaching the outskirts of Plyokhovo. Another Russian group is advancing on Cherkasskaya Konopelka, aiming to gain fire control over the Sumy–Sudzha road and force the AFU to withdraw from the Kursk region.

Ukraine

Pokrovsk, Selydove, and Kurakhove

Russian forces have captured the settlements of Tsukuryne and Ostrovske. Their main objective in this part of the front clearly seems to be reaching the Kurakhove Reservoir from both the east and north. In the east, near Ostrovske, they’ve basically achieved this already. Russian troops will likely now attempt to expand their foothold by capturing the nearby village of Maksymilyanivka.

With Tsukuryne’s fall, Ukrainian forces defending Hirnyk and Kurakhove find themselves in a precarious position. Any further Russian advance southward could force them to abandon their positions. Ukrainian troops in Selydove are also at risk of encirclement, as Russian units have already bypassed the city from both the north and south.

Siversk

Russian forces have raised flags over two of the Ukrainian army’s “fortresses” — Hryhorivka (on the banks of the Siverskyi Donets River) and Verkhniokamianske (between Lysychansk and Siversk). This suggests that Ukrainian forces may soon have to abandon their key stronghold in the area — the heights near Bilohorivka, outside Lysychansk. However, the videos showing the flags over these “fortresses” have sparked much debate, as the Russian command in the Siversk sector has a reputation for making false reports about capturing settlements.

This time, the Russian side claimed that a drone had placed a flag on a building in Verkhniokamianske, while in Hryhorivka, one was raised by a special forces team that had reached the Ukrainian rear by boat. Later, though, a video surfaced showing a group of soldiers raising the flag in Verkhniokamianske by hand. Either way, the situation around Siversk remains unclear. If Russian forces continue their advance, it could lead to a new crisis in Ukrainian defense.

Vovchansk

Russian troops have recaptured at least part of the Vovchansk Aggregate Plant on the Vovcha River. A few weeks ago, Ukrainian troops took control of the factory ruins, where several hundred Russian soldiers had been holding out under partial encirclement. In response, the Russian command dropped dozens of heavy air bombs on the site, forcing the Ukrainian units to withdraw.

It seems likely that Vovchansk will suffer the same fate as Marinka, a major district center in the Donetsk region that was completely destroyed after months of urban fighting and bombing from both sides.

Meduza is careful in working with data, but mistakes are still possible, and perhaps even inevitable. If you spot one, please let us know by sending an email to reports@meduza.io. Thank you!

Read our previous combat map

With Vuhledar lost and another Ukrainian stronghold in danger, Russia could take southern Donbas by year’s end

2 months ago

Read our previous combat map

With Vuhledar lost and another Ukrainian stronghold in danger, Russia could take southern Donbas by year’s end

2 months ago