Russia makes key gains on seven fronts as Ukraine suffers its hardest week on the battlefield this year

Like our earlier reports on the combat situation in Ukraine, this article takes stock of the recent developments on the battlefield based on open-source information. Meduza has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from the very start, and our detailed military analyses are part of our commitment to objective reporting on a war we firmly oppose.

Our map is based exclusively on open-source photos and videos, most of them posted by eyewitnesses on social media. We collect available evidence and determine its geolocation markers, adding only the photos and videos that clear this process. Meduza doesn’t try to track the conflict in real time; the data reflected on the map are typically at least 48 hours old.

Key updates as of October 24, 2024

Russia has been on the offensive for an entire year. Yet this past week has been one of the toughest — if not the toughest — for Ukraine’s Armed Forces (AFU) during that time. Russian troops made significant gains on several fronts. South of Kupyansk, they advanced to the Oskil River, splitting Ukrainian forces in that area. They also crossed the Siverskyi Donets–Donbas Canal, reaching the southern outskirts of Chasiv Yar, potentially setting the stage for a swift assault on the city.

In another operation, Russian forces breached Ukrainian defenses near Toretsk, advancing to the city’s western outskirts. They also forced the AFU to abandon a wide “pocket” between Selydove and Donetsk — a position Ukrainian troops had used to shell Donetsk and the Donetsk-Pokrovsk highway. The Russian army has nearly encircled the key city of Selydove and has pushed into Kurakhove, another logistics hub in southern Donbas. Meanwhile, the AFU has been unable to halt Russian attacks on several fronts in the Kursk region, forcing Ukrainian troops to pull back toward Sudzha.

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Russia

Kursk region

In mid-October, Russian troops broke through to the villages of Novoivanovka and Zelenyi Shlyakh, west of Sudzha, putting Ukrainian forces in the Korenevsky district at risk of encirclement. Ukrainian troops managed to retreat from the Korenevo and Olgovka areas toward Novoivanovka. Some units from the Lyubimovka area, now under Russian control, were forced to withdraw on foot while under fire from Russian artillery and drones.

To hold back the Russian advance, the AFU launched a major counterattack using battalions from the 47th Mechanized Brigade. These battalions, redeployed from near Pokrovsk, are equipped with Western weapons, including Abrams tanks and Bradley infantry fighting vehicles. Several mechanized groups with this equipment attacked Novoivanovka and Zelenyi Shlyakh. Judging by open-source videos, Zelenyi Shlyakh remained under Russian control after the battle, though the situation in Novoivanovka is unclear.

Meanwhile, Russian forces are also advancing on Sudzha from the southwest, aiming to cut off AFU troops from the border with Ukraine’s Sumy region. They’ve made gains near Russkaya Konopelka, and the Russian Defense Ministry claims to have recaptured the village of Plekhovo, south of Sudzha, although this hasn’t been independently verified.

Ukraine

Kupyansk

After months of gradual advances, Russian forces reached their first objective — the Oskil River. A key supply route ran alongside it, connecting troops in eastern Kupyansk with those in the Borova area. This route was crucial, as Russian airstrikes repeatedly destroyed river crossings, forcing the AFU to transport supplies and reinforcements along the eastern bank.

Now, Russian forces can move on to the next phase: attacking Kupyansk from three directions and pushing south along the river toward Borova. There’s also a possibility they may attempt to cross the Oskil. For the time being, Russian troops are expanding their foothold in the villages of Kolisnykivka and Kruhliakivka on the banks of the Oskil.

Chasiv Yar

Russian forces crossed the Siverskyi Donets–Donbas Canal near Chasiv Yar several months ago, but their progress in the city’s urban areas has been extremely slow. Over the past few months, they’ve only managed to capture a few streets in the eastern part of the elevated city.

On October 20, however, Russian troops unexpectedly broke across the canal south of Chasiv Yar, reaching the city’s outskirts. This now puts the main supply routes for Ukrainian forces in Chasiv Yar — the roads to Toretsk and Kostiantynivka — at risk.

Toretsk

Russian forces have long been bogged down in battles with Ukrainian reserves in the high-rise areas of Toretsk. However, in recent days, their advance has picked up speed, breaking through to the city’s western outskirts from the settlements of Niu-York and Nelipivka.

It’s unclear whether Ukrainian defenses in Toretsk can hold out against attacks from both the south and west. In September, the AFU grouping in Toretsk was reinforced with several brigades and battalions redeployed from other fronts. The Ukrainian command doesn’t have other reserves to draw on.

Selydove and Kurakhove

Russian forces have advanced to the line between the village of Hirnyk and the Kurakhove Reservoir, meaning there are no longer any Ukrainian troops east of this area. A month ago, it appeared likely that the AFU had withdrawn from the “pocket” between Hirnyk and the western outskirts of Donetsk; now this is confirmed. The AFU’s retreat means Russian troops can safely use the Donetsk–Pokrovsk road as far as the Selydove area, significantly improving supply lines for the troops advancing toward Pokrovsk.

Russian forces are not only attacking Hirnyk but also maneuvering to outflank the Ukrainian troops defending the town and its northern outskirts. Their aim is not just to capture Hirnyk but also to advance to the western edge of the Kurakhove Reservoir.

After taking the village of Maksymilyanivka, Russian forces reached the eastern shore of the reservoir and even entered a nearby dacha settlement, which falls within Kurakhove’s city limits. Kurakhove is the main logistics hub for the AFU in southern Donbas, and losing it could lead to a defense crisis across a large area from Velyka Novosilka to Selydove.

Russian forces have nearly surrounded Selydove, south of Pokrovsk, and have begun storming the city. By the evening of October 23, fighting had already reached the city center. Once they take Selydove, Russian troops will be positioned to launch an operation to encircle Pokrovsk, a key city in central Donbas, from the south. This maneuver would help avoid a direct assault from the east, where the AFU’s main fortified positions are located.

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Read our previous combat map

Still advancing in Donbas, Russian forces intensify efforts to drive Ukrainian troops out of the Kursk region

2 months ago

Read our previous combat map

Still advancing in Donbas, Russian forces intensify efforts to drive Ukrainian troops out of the Kursk region

2 months ago